What the odds should be.
building your edge
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initializing engine…
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ROUND · PLAN · PRO
◎ PRICE ANY MARKET i any Polymarket or Kalshi market — instant fair odds, de-vig & model pricing
US-Regulated CFTC-overseen · open to U.S. persons Global international venue · may be restricted where you live i always check your local eligibility
Live track record · out-of-sampleireal signals · settled vs actual resolutions
Model consensusi
Tail probability ridgei
◄ lower price · higher price ►  |  front = now · back = resolution
Edge map · by asset & time leftinumbers = edge in points · green = good YES bet · red = good NO bet
Edge spread · all analyzed marketsi
NO-edge ◄book is fair► YES-edge
Other markets · price only (no model yet)i
Resources · how to use every tool

Quick start — 30 seconds

  1. Open “Where the edge is today.” Green STRONG EDGE cards are the best opportunities right now.
  2. Read the card: it tells you BUY Yes or No, your edge, and a green “You win if…” line in plain English.
  3. Act on it at the venue you use — you decide how much to risk. That's it.

The tools

◎ Analyze any market — Got a market that isn't in the list? Paste its link or ID and hit Get the odds. We price it on the spot and show the same card: what to buy, your edge, and the contract payoff.

Model consensus — A live picture of our model ensemble voting on the top pick. Green dots = models that say “Yes”, red = “No”. A tight one-colour cluster means strong agreement; a mixed blob means it's a coin-flip and we stay out.

Edge map — The whole board at a glance: every coin (rows) across time-to-resolution (columns). A green cell = a good Yes bet there, red = a good No bet, the number is your edge in points, ● = strong, ○ = worth watching, blank = no market.

Where the edge is today — Your main screen. Each card: ▸ BUY Yes/No at X¢, the market price → true odds, your edge with a 1–5 dot strength meter, and the contract payoff (win/lose per $1). Open “How we got this” for the model detail, or “check the buzz” for a live news-and-social read. Use WITH EDGE / ALL to filter.

◎ Bookmakers say… (sports) — Every match card shows the same game priced by the world's leading sports bookmaker, with its hidden profit margin removed. One glance tells you whether this market's price is fair: if the two numbers agree, it is; if they're far apart, you're looking at a disagreement worth knowing about before you act. Information only — it never changes our signal.

Event odds — Multi-runner events (elections, leagues, awards) presented as a fair-value board. Each runner's probability is recovered with Shin's method, which removes the book's overround (the operator margin) while correcting the favourite-longshot bias — more accurate than proportional normalisation. Prices summing over 100% is the normal margin, not an edge; for an independent estimate use AI true-odds.

Edge spread — A histogram of how big the edges are across everything we priced. Bars to the right = the market underprices “Yes”; to the left = it overprices “Yes”.

Other markets — Markets we don't have a model for yet, shown at their live price for reference only — no edge call.

ControlsAUTO refreshes every 60s · REFRESH recomputes now · LIGHT/DARK switches theme · GUIDE jumps here.

Glossary

True odds — our models' estimate of the real chance the event happens.
Market price — what the crowd is currently paying (its implied chance).
Your edge — true odds minus the market price. Positive = you're getting a better deal than the crowd.
Confidence — 0–100 score blending model agreement, signal strength, liquidity and time left.
STRONG EDGE / EDGE / NO EDGE — how strong the opportunity is. Only act with intent on the first two.
Dots ●●●●○ — quick strength meter for the edge: more filled = bigger advantage.
Calibrated — our odds are corrected using how past markets actually resolved, so “30%” really means ~30%.
Bookmakers say — the same match priced by the world's leading sports bookmaker, with its profit margin removed — its honest probability, shown next to this market's price for comparison.
Vig — the profit margin a bookmaker hides inside its odds (why they add up to more than 100%). We strip it out before comparing.

Read it responsibly

An edge plays out over many bets, never every single one — expect losing streaks even when you're right. Never risk more than you can afford to lose. Kanon does not recommend how much to bet — position sizing is entirely your decision. It is an information and analytics tool: it does not place trades, hold funds, or route you to any venue, and nothing here is financial or betting advice.