LIVE · pricing event markets in real time

An edge the crowd
doesn't have.

Kanon prices every market with an ensemble of models, then shows you exactly where the odds are wrong. A sophisticated trading partner — one screen, no spreadsheets.

Backtested · calibrated on real resolutions · no fabricated win-rates
kanonmarkets.com / terminal
How it works

Three steps. No guessing.

The same workflow a quant desk uses — automated, and readable at a glance.

01 · SCAN

Read the whole board

We pull every live market and the real underlying data — live prices, realized volatility and order-book depth — hundreds of markets every refresh.

02 · PRICE

Run the model ensemble

~30 volatility models vote on a fair probability for each market. Like weather forecasting: we don't trust one model, we count the votes.

03 · EDGE

Take only the mispricings

When the fair probability and the market price disagree — and the models agree — you get a signal with edge, expected value and risk/reward.

Features

Your sophisticated trading partner

Powerful underneath, dead-simple on top.

Fair-value engine

Closed-form models price price-target markets — will it cross a level, stay in a range, or touch a barrier — with edge, expected value and risk/reward computed for you.

Self-calibrating

The model is backtested on real resolutions and auto-corrects its own bias. It tells you the truth, including when it's uncertain.

Cross-market arbitrage

Scans sports & event baskets where the odds don't add up to 100% — clean, model-free edge on elections, leagues and more.

Live sentiment (Grok)

Optional AI read of X & news per market — bot-filtered, weighting only credible accounts, compared straight to the book.

Robustness matrix

The entire board at a glance: every asset × every horizon, color-coded by where the edge is — and where it isn't.

Honest track record

Every signal is logged with its entry price and settled against the real outcome. Your P&L is earned, never invented.

Bookmakers say…

Every match is checked against the world's leading sports bookmaker — the odds professional bettors trust — with the hidden profit margin stripped out, shown right next to the market's price. If they agree, the price is fair. If they don't, you know before you act.

Proof, not promises

Validated on real resolutions

From the built-in backtest over 128 resolved markets. Numbers update as the model improves — and we never hide them.

82%
directional accuracy @ 1-day horizon
+0.42
Brier skill vs base rate
−49%
calibration error after auto-correction
~40
arbitrage baskets found per scan
Backtest reproducible in-app · accuracy decays at longer horizons and we show you exactly where · past performance ≠ future results.
Early access

Everything's free right now

We're in early access — the full desk is unlocked for everyone while our live track record builds. No card, no catch. These are the plans we'll launch later; early users lock in founder pricing.

Scout
$0
See the board. Get a taste of the edge.
  • Live market scan & ensemble mesh
  • 1 sample signal
  • Full signal feed
  • Robustness matrix
  • Arbitrage & Grok sentiment
Open free
MOST POPULAR
Edge
Free · $10.99/mo later
Price every market. The core trading partner.
  • Full model-priced signal feed
  • Fair value · edge · EV · R/R
  • Robustness matrix
  • Self-calibrating model + backtest
  • Arbitrage & Grok sentiment
Open free →
Pro Desk
Free · $24.99/mo later
The full desk. Every edge we can find.
  • Everything in Edge
  • Cross-market arbitrage scanner
  • Grok live sentiment (bot-filtered)
  • Forward track record + priority signals
  • Early access to new models
Open free →
FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Does Kanon guarantee returns?

No. Kanon identifies statistical edge — instances where market pricing diverges from a model-derived fair value. Edge is realised across a large sample of positions with disciplined sizing; individual outcomes vary and drawdowns are expected. Kanon provides analytics, not investment or betting advice, and does not guarantee results.

Which markets does it cover?

Any market you paste. Price-target markets — will an asset cross a level, hold a range, or touch a barrier — are priced directly by quantitative models. For other event markets Kanon removes the market's built-in overround and provides an independent AI estimate, so you always see the odds. It is an independent analytics layer and does not connect to, hold funds for, or place orders on any trading venue.

How does it differ from reading the odds directly?

Market prices reflect the prevailing consensus. Kanon estimates an independent fair value, quantifies the divergence from the market (your edge), and reports the model's confidence — so you can act on a measured basis rather than intuition. Position sizing is always your own decision.

Is any technical background required?

No. Each opportunity is presented as a concise read — the side and the size of the edge. The quantitative methodology operates underneath and is documented in full within the in-app Resources section.

How is low-quality or automated social activity handled?

The optional sentiment layer discounts coordinated, automated, and newly-created accounts, weights established and credible sources, and returns a bot-risk assessment alongside every read.

How is the methodology validated?

Model probabilities are back-tested against historically resolved markets and recalibrated so stated odds correspond to realised frequencies. Calibration statistics are shown in-app and update as the model evolves. Past and back-tested performance does not predict future results.