FAVOURITE
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%
Polymarket prices 11 outcomes on this event. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10% is the shortest at 41¢, 14 points clear of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%. The prices sum to 110¢, so the book carries about 10.2 points of operator margin; the fair column is those prices with that margin removed. Trading closes 4 October 2026, 48 days from now. $323k has traded on it.
| Runner | Market price |
|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10% | 41¢ |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15% | 27¢ |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5% | 20¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5% | 6¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10% | 5¢ |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15% | 5¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10% | 3¢ |
| another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 1¢ |
| Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 1¢ |
| Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ |
| Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election | 0¢ |
Open the live terminal →Global — reference only · blocked to U.S. persons