POLYMARKET
29¢
Flávio Bolsonaro is priced on both venues: 29¢ on Polymarket and 32¢ on Kalshi, 3 points apart. Across the 60 contracts Kanon currently matches on both venues the median difference is 3.5 points. The two are matched outcome by outcome. These are mid prices rather than the price either book would actually fill at, and a difference is only a difference if both venues settle the question the same way. Polymarket prices 18 outcomes on this event. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the shortest at 68¢, 18 points clear of Pablo Marçal. The prices sum to 103¢, so the book carries about 2.9 points of operator margin; the fair column is those prices with that margin removed. Trading closes 4 October 2026, 48 days from now. $124.4m has traded on it.
| Runner | Market price |
|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 68¢ |
| Pablo Marçal | 50¢ |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 30¢ |
| Renan Santos | 4¢ |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0¢ |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0¢ |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 0¢ |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0¢ |
| Romeu Zema | 0¢ |
| Camilo Santana | 0¢ |
| Tereza Cristina | 0¢ |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0¢ |
Showing the 12 most likely of 18 runners.
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