Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Renan Santos is priced on both venues: 4¢ on Polymarket and 7¢ on Kalshi, 3 points apart. Across the 60 contracts Kanon currently matches on both venues the median difference is 3.5 points. The two are matched outcome by outcome. These are mid prices rather than the price either book would actually fill at, and a difference is only a difference if both venues settle the question the same way. Polymarket prices 9 outcomes on this event. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the shortest at 96¢, 4 points clear of Flavio Bolsonaro.

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