Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party is priced on both venues: 52¢ on Polymarket and 48¢ on Kalshi, 4 points apart. Across the 60 contracts Kanon currently matches on both venues the median difference is 3.5 points. The two are matched outcome by outcome. These are mid prices rather than the price either book would actually fill at, and a difference is only a difference if both venues settle the question the same way. Polymarket prices 2 outcomes on this event. Democratic is the shortest at 52¢, 4 points clear of Republican.

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