POLYMARKET
3¢
Lionel Messi is priced on both venues: 3¢ on Polymarket and 5¢ on Kalshi, 2 points apart. Across the 60 contracts Kanon currently matches on both venues the median difference is 2.0 points. The two are matched outcome by outcome. These are mid prices rather than the price either book would actually fill at, and a difference is only a difference if both venues settle the question the same way. Polymarket prices 31 outcomes on this event. Harry Kane is the shortest at 54¢, 14 points clear of Lamine Yamal. The prices sum to 101¢, so the book carries about 1.5 points of operator margin; the fair column is those prices with that margin removed. Trading closes 1 January 2027, 84 days from now. $46.2m has traded on it.
| Runner | Market price |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 54¢ |
| Lamine Yamal | 40¢ |
| Lionel Messi | 3¢ |
| Kylian Mbappé | 2¢ |
| Rodri | 1¢ |
| Michael Olise | 0¢ |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0¢ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 0¢ |
| Erling Haaland | 0¢ |
| Fabian Ruiz | 0¢ |
| Jude Bellingham | 0¢ |
| Pau Cubarsi | 0¢ |
Showing the 12 most likely of 31 runners.
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