WHAT THE ODDS SHOULD BE.

Will the maximum temperature be <84° on Aug 17, 2026? — 83° or below

MARKET PRICE

81¢

VENUE

Kalshi

SETTLES

18 August 2026

Kalshi prices this contract at 81¢, which is the market's own read on how likely it is to resolve Yes. Trading closes 18 August 2026, 1 days from now. $3k has traded on it.

Open the live terminal →View on Kalshi →

OTHER CLIMATE MARKETS WE PRICE

Japan earthquake M8+ Before 2030
California earthquake M8+ Before 2035
At least 3 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026
Miami daily high 98° or above
Miami daily high 96° to 97°
Austin daily high 104° to 105°
Austin daily high 102° to 103°
Miami daily high 92° to 93°
Austin daily high 100° to 101°
California earthquake M8+ Before 2027

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