WHAT THE ODDS SHOULD BE.

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?

MARKET PRICE

39¢

VENUE

Kalshi

SETTLES

1 January 2030

Kalshi prices this contract at 39¢, which is the market's own read on how likely it is to resolve Yes. Trading closes 1 January 2030, 1233 days from now. $43k has traded on it.

Open the live terminal →View on Kalshi →

OTHER CLIMATE MARKETS WE PRICE

California earthquake M8+ Before 2035
At least 3 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026
NYC daily high 83° or below
Miami daily high 98° or above
Miami daily high 96° to 97°
Austin daily high 104° to 105°
Austin daily high 102° to 103°
Miami daily high 92° to 93°
Austin daily high 100° to 101°
California earthquake M8+ Before 2027

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