WHAT THE ODDS SHOULD BE.

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

MARKET PRICE

25¢

VENUE

Kalshi

SETTLES

31 December 2035

Kalshi prices this contract at 25¢, which is the market's own read on how likely it is to resolve Yes. Trading closes 31 December 2035, 3423 days from now. $26k has traded on it.

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OTHER CLIMATE MARKETS WE PRICE

Japan earthquake M8+ Before 2030
At least 3 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026
NYC daily high 83° or below
Miami daily high 98° or above
Miami daily high 96° to 97°
Austin daily high 104° to 105°
Austin daily high 102° to 103°
Miami daily high 92° to 93°
Austin daily high 100° to 101°
California earthquake M8+ Before 2027

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