POLYMARKET
76¢
Hike 25bps is priced on both venues: 76¢ on Polymarket and 73¢ on Kalshi, 3 points apart. Across the 60 contracts Kanon currently matches on both venues the median difference is 2.0 points. The two are matched outcome by outcome. These are mid prices rather than the price either book would actually fill at, and a difference is only a difference if both venues settle the question the same way. Polymarket prices 5 outcomes on this event. the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps is the shortest at 76¢, 54 points clear of no change in Fed interest rates. The prices sum to 102¢, so the book carries about 2.3 points of operator margin; the fair column is those prices with that margin removed. Trading closes 10 December 2026, 62 days from now. $2.9m has traded on it.
| Runner | Market price |
|---|---|
| the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps | 76¢ |
| no change in Fed interest rates | 22¢ |
| the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps | 3¢ |
| the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps | 1¢ |
| the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps | 0¢ |
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