Fed Decision in December?

Fed maintains rate is priced on both venues: 62¢ on Polymarket and 68¢ on Kalshi, 6 points apart. Across the 38 contracts Kanon currently matches on both venues the median difference is 2.0 points. The two are matched outcome by outcome. These are mid prices rather than the price either book would actually fill at, and a difference is only a difference if both venues settle the question the same way. Polymarket prices 5 outcomes on this event. no change in Fed interest rates is the shortest at 62¢, 34 points clear of the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps. The prices sum to 101¢, so the book carries about 1.1 points of operator margin; the fair column is those prices with that margin removed. Trading closes 9 December 2026, 110 days from now. $255k has traded on it.

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