POLYMARKET
32¢
Hike 25bps is priced on both venues: 32¢ on Polymarket and 35¢ on Kalshi, 3 points apart. Across the 60 contracts Kanon currently matches on both venues the median difference is 2.2 points. The two are matched outcome by outcome. These are mid prices rather than the price either book would actually fill at, and a difference is only a difference if both venues settle the question the same way. Polymarket prices 5 outcomes on this event. no change in Fed interest rates is the shortest at 64¢, 32 points clear of the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps. The prices sum to 101¢, so the book carries about 0.5 points of operator margin; the fair column is those prices with that margin removed. Trading closes 28 January 2027, 111 days from now. $285k has traded on it.
| Runner | Market price |
|---|---|
| no change in Fed interest rates | 64¢ |
| the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps | 32¢ |
| the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps | 2¢ |
| the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps | 1¢ |
| the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps | 1¢ |
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