POLYMARKET
41¢
Marine Le Pen is priced on both venues: 41¢ on Polymarket and 48¢ on Kalshi, 7 points apart. Across the 60 contracts Kanon currently matches on both venues the median difference is 2.0 points. The two are matched outcome by outcome. These are mid prices rather than the price either book would actually fill at, and a difference is only a difference if both venues settle the question the same way. Polymarket prices 42 outcomes on this event. Marine Le Pen is the shortest at 41¢, 19 points clear of Édouard Philippe. The prices sum to 101¢, so the book carries about 1.4 points of operator margin; the fair column is those prices with that margin removed. Trading closes 19 April 2027, 192 days from now. $147.5m has traded on it.
| Runner | Market price |
|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 41¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | 22¢ |
| David Lisnard | 13¢ |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12¢ |
| François Hollande | 3¢ |
| Gabriel Attal | 2¢ |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 1¢ |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1¢ |
| Sarah Knafo | 1¢ |
| Christine Lagarde | 1¢ |
| Éric Zemmour | 1¢ |
| Jordan Bardella | 1¢ |
Showing the 12 most likely of 42 runners.
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