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the hottest year on record
Polymarket prices 6 outcomes on this event. the hottest year on record is the shortest at 70¢, 42 points clear of the second-hottest year on record. The prices sum to 102¢, so the book carries about 1.6 points of operator margin; the fair column is those prices with that margin removed. Trading closes 31 December 2026, 136 days from now. $3.3m has traded on it.
| Runner | Market price |
|---|---|
| the hottest year on record | 70¢ |
| the second-hottest year on record | 28¢ |
| the third-hottest year on record | 2¢ |
| rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower | 1¢ |
| the fourth-hottest year on record | 0¢ |
| the fifth-hottest year on record | 0¢ |
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