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a 25 bps increase
Polymarket prices 5 outcomes on this event. a 25 bps increase is the shortest at 88¢, 76 points clear of no change. The prices sum to 100¢, so the book carries about 0.1 points of operator margin; the fair column is those prices with that margin removed. Trading closes 10 September 2026, 22 days from now. $234k has traded on it.
| Runner | Market price |
|---|---|
| a 25 bps increase | 88¢ |
| no change | 12¢ |
| a 50+ bps increase | 0¢ |
| a 25 bps decrease | 0¢ |
| a 50+ bps decrease | 0¢ |
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