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at least 2.0°C
Kalshi prices 5 outcomes on this event. at least 2.0°C is the shortest at 96¢, 90 points clear of between 1.5°C and 1.9°C? — 1.5°C to 1.9°C. The prices sum to 107¢, so the book carries about 7 points of operator margin; the fair column is those prices with that margin removed. Trading closes 5 April 2027, 179 days from now. $3k has traded on it.
| Runner | Market price |
|---|---|
| at least 2.0°C | 96¢ |
| between 1.5°C and 1.9°C? — 1.5°C to 1.9°C | 6¢ |
| between 1.0°C and 1.4°C? — 1.0°C to 1.4°C | 2¢ |
| between 0.5°C and 0.9°C? — 0.5°C to 0.9°C | 2¢ |
| below 0.5°C | 1¢ |
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