WHAT THE ODDS SHOULD BE.
Geopolitics markets
Conflict, diplomacy and who holds power where. These are the markets with the thinnest books on the board, so the operator's margin matters most here and the de-vigged column is furthest from the quoted price. 45 live on the board right now.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Polymarket
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Polymarket
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?Polymarket
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Polymarket
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Polymarket
- Iran leader end of 2026?Polymarket
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Polymarket
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?Polymarket
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Polymarket
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Polymarket
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Polymarket
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Polymarket
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Polymarket
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket
- Trump out as President before 2027?Polymarket
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Polymarket
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Polymarket
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Polymarket
- US strike on Mexico by December 31?Polymarket
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?Polymarket
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Polymarket
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Polymarket
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Polymarket
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Polymarket
- Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?Polymarket
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Polymarket
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Polymarket
- Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?Polymarket
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Polymarket
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Polymarket
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket
- Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Polymarket
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Polymarket