WHAT THE ODDS SHOULD BE.
Geopolitics markets
Conflict, diplomacy and who holds power where. These are the markets with the thinnest books on the board, so the operator's margin matters most here and the de-vigged column is furthest from the quoted price. 45 live on the board right now.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Polymarket
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Polymarket
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?Polymarket
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Iran leader end of 2026?Polymarket
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Polymarket
- Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?Polymarket
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Polymarket
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Polymarket
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Polymarket
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Polymarket
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Polymarket
- Trump out as President before 2027?Polymarket
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Polymarket
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Polymarket
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Polymarket
- US strike on Mexico by December 31?Polymarket
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Polymarket
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?Polymarket
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Polymarket
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Polymarket
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Polymarket
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Polymarket
- Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?Polymarket
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Polymarket
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Polymarket
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?Polymarket
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Polymarket
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Polymarket
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket
- Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Polymarket
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?Polymarket
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Polymarket